The National Football League has become the world’s most successful and richest sports league in the 21st century. It is comprised of 32 teams all fighting for the Vince Lombardi trophy every year in the Super Bowl.
One of the NFL’s distinctive features is its unpredictability. In the past few years, many teams have dominated the league, and it has become very difficult to guess who will end the Kansas City Chiefs’ domination. This rocked not only the world of fans but the betting industry, too. Sportsbooks profit from their capacity to predict outcomes since they provide betting chances on various outcomes.
The Role of Odds in Sportsbooks
NFL and betting have worked in symbiosis for almost a century now since the NFL was just a semi-pro sport. It reached its peak last year when the Super Bowl was held in Las Vegas.
This year’s NFL playoffs bring a new dimension of interest. For the first time in the last twelve years, every side has won ten or more games, meaning there are a lot of unpredictable games in front of us.
Guiding bettors in a sportsbook is impossible without odds. Setting them requires extensive data analysis, including team results, player statistics, injury reports, and previous patterns. Sportsbooks promote similar betting on each side of a wager to balance their books. If one team is strongly favored to win, for example, the odds will be changed to make betting on the outsider appealing.
There are usually three types of odds :
- American – positive or negative number (positive shows how much you can win if you bet a specific price and negative one represents how much you risk)
- Decimal – represents how much profit per one dollar you wage
- Fractional – represents how much you would get back
No matter which one you use, they are just a representation of probability and price.
To understand the odds better, let’s use the upcoming playoff game between the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders as an example.
Specific bets type in NFL games are :
- the money line – you bet on the Philadelphia Eagles to win
- the points total – you bet to go over or under a certain amount of points
- the handicap – a market where one side, in this case, Washington Commanders is given a point advantage so they and the Philadelphia Eagles are close to even money
If the odds are higher on the Philadelphia Eagles, which they are, the implied probability is lower which assumes a lower price.
Sportsbooks keep a close eye on their liabilities or the possible payout for every possible event. The sportsbook could lose a lot of money if either side of a wager draws noticeably more money. The NFL has been famous for its unpredictability since 1969 and the historic game where underdogs The New Jets shocked the Baltimore Colts defeating them 16-7.
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Examples of Unexpected Outcomes
One of the games to remember is an upset that happened in 2008 against a team that was considered one of the greatest sports teams of all time, the undefeated New England Patriots. They lost the big game against The New York Giants and missed out on the biggest trophy in the game. It is considered one of the greatest events in sports history.
In 2004, the 12-1 Patriots were upset 29-28 by the Dolphins, who had a 2-11 record.
The Patriots were the reigning champs on a historic run, while the Dolphins were having a terrible season. One of the most startling shocks in regular-season history was sealed by Miami’s miracles in the last quarter, which included an interception in the fourth quarter.
During the global pandemic COVID-19, Kevin Stefanski, their head coach at the time, couldn’t lead his side in the 2020 AFC Wild Card game. Despite all odds, his team, the Browns, shocked the Steelers in the first quarter, leading 28-0, which rewarded them with a win.
Impact on Sportsbooks
Major upsets and other unexpected losses can have a big effect on sportsbook operators by causing deficient books and big payouts. Even though they are uncommon, these incidents serve as reminders of how unpredictable sports betting is and warn bettors on possible major losses for sportsbooks. .
Sportsbooks use techniques like dynamic odds modification, maximum bet limits, and data analytics to predict bettor behavior to reduce future risks. To spread liabilities, operators also vary their products or lay off sizable wagers with other sportsbooks.
Conclusion
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